From 1977 to 2009, Ponnani was represented constantly by the likes of G.M. Banatwala (seven instances), Ebrahim Sulaiman Sait and E. Ahmed, earlier than the delimitation gave the Left a gap of kinds.
The 2009 experiment concerned snatching the seat away from its ally CPI and backing an Independent collectively supported by Abdul Nazar Madani of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the A.P. Sunni faction (after the initials of its chief Kanthapuram AP Aboobacker Musaliar) of the Samastha Kerala Jem-iyyathul Ulama — solely to return a cropper.
The subsequent experiment in 2014 concerned getting insurgent Congressman V. Abdurahman (now a minister within the Pinarayi Vijayan Cabinet) to modify over to the Left and it practically labored as the bulk was introduced right down to 25,000 votes. This was repeated in 2019 when one other Congress turncoat in P.V. Anwar was fielded, solely to get trounced within the wave generated by Rahul Gandhi’s candidature in Wayanad.
Come 2024, it was assumed that Thavanur legislator Ok.T. Jaleel, who had switched from IUML in 2005, would get the nod. Instead, Hamza’s shock candidature could be an indication of many issues to observe in Malabar.
Politics of Malabar & IUML
Malabar is basically the northern a part of Kerala which was underneath the British administration as a part of the Madras Presidency earlier than Independence, not like the princely states of Travancore and Cochin. Six out of fourteen districts stretching from Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur to Kasaragod fall on this area, additional divided into 9 constituencies.
This area has the utmost focus of the Muslim (Moplah) neighborhood, particularly Malappuram and Kozhikode, whose origins are traced to commerce and assimilation slightly than bloody conquests.
The Hindus make up the bulk and the Christian illustration is proscribed to pockets made up of settlers from Central Travancore. The CPI(M) is stronger within the area than the Congress though the Lok Sabha elections don’t usually replicate that.
The politics of Malabar, particularly Malappuram, because the 90s pits the Left supported by the AP Sunnis — towards the IUML backed by the E.Ok. Sunni faction of the Samastha Kerala Jem-iyyathul Ulema (referred to mononymously as Samastha) and the Congress.
The E.Ok. faction accounts for roughly two-thirds of the Sunnis, whereas the AP faction accounts for the remainder. The Salafis/Mujahids (divided into three teams) and the Jamat-e-Islami account for lower than 5 % of Malabar Muslims.
The CPI(M) has been actively courting the IUML throughout Vijayan’s second time period as a way to destabilise the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). There have been makes an attempt to create disaffection within the IUML ranks for the Congress by portraying it as being lower than assertive on points regarding Muslims.
Parallelly, it has been attempting to separate the IUML vote financial institution by perpetuating a rift with the Samastha. The CPI(M)’s third various could be to engineer a vertical cut up within the IUML by means of Kunhalikutty — who enjoys a terrific rapport with Vijayan — but it surely’s no simple process.
Of late, the CPI(M) has been attempting to create confusion within the IUML ranks by being shriller on minority points and caricaturing their id politics-driven social gathering as being too gentle on issues regarding the Muslims.
Also Read: What’s queering the pitch for AK Antony’s son Anil, BJP candidate in Kerala’s Pathanamthitta
IUML & Samastha
Though the IUML and the Samastha are basically of the identical inventory, there’s a clear division of labour because the latter is broadly involved with points regarding religion whereas the previous shapes the politics of the 2 outfits. The Samastha (together with the offshoot A.P. faction) is a physique of orthodox Sunnis.
In Kerala, the IUML is basically a political social gathering led by a Thangal (Syed) — who shuns political workplace — with a bunch of Mujahid intelligentsia on the high. The Mujahids are distinct from the extra radical Salafis/Wahabbis elsewhere, as they’re a product of the Kerala renaissance motion with key figures comparable to Vakkom Moulavi shaping it.
Veteran journalist N.P. Chekkutty in his guide ‘Muslim League in Kerala History’ writes: “The early Mujahid leaders of IUML in Kerala such as Seethi Haji and Chakeeri Ahmed Kutty recognised that they needed to attract the large numbers of Sunnis to make the party winnable, and hence brought in influential Sunni thought leaders such as Abdurahman Bafaqi Thangal based in Koilandy and PMSA Pookoya Thangal based in Panakkad who were both originally aligned to the Congress.”
By advantage of being discovered in Islamic jurisprudence, the early Thangals made it to the Mushawara, the 40-member physique which drives the Samastha. Since 1948, Thangals have occupied a key put up of the Samastha until the dying of Sayed Hyder Ali Shihab Thangal in 2022. The next-in-line and incumbent IUML chief Sayyid Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal wasn’t accorded this privilege for not being an Islamic scholar.
Shajra or ginger group in EK Samastha
Around the identical time when Hyder Ali Thangal started to maintain unwell, one other Thangal (Syed) in Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal acquired elevated because the Samastha president in 2017, marking a departure from the previous. The conflict of egos between the relatively-younger IUML chief and the Samastha president have since sophisticated issues.
Of late, a ginger group of three led by Umar Faizy Mukkam, Abdul Hameed Faizy Ambalakkadavu and Sathar Panthalloor together with Musthafa Mundupara — CEO of the E.Ok. Samastha-mouthpiece ‘Suprabhatham’ day by day — have been revolting towards the IUML, evidently with the blessings of Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal.
And the CPI(M) sees a chance in attempting to widen this rift to make political capital out of it. Earlier, the Samastha would solely discuss to political events and even the federal government by means of the IUML management. This labored wonderful until Hyder Ali Thangal had management over it, however all the pieces modified after Vijayan established a direct line of communication with Jifri Muthukoya Thangal.
The Shajra group, which had some variations with the IUML and who constituted solely a small minority within the Samastha management ranks, step by step closed ranks with the CPI(M), after securing the tacit backing of Jifri Muthukoya Thangal.
Ahead of the CPI(M)’s naming of the candidates, Abdul Hameed Faizy Ambalakkadavu and Mustafa Mundupara are presupposed to have travelled to Thiruvananthapuram to fulfill the social gathering’s secretary M.V. Govindan, facilitated by Elamaram Kareem, in line with a senior Samastha chief aligned to the IUML.
The candidature of Ok.S. Hamza is meant to be a direct results of this. However, this understanding just isn’t precisely restricted to Ponnani.
Hamza’s probabilities in Ponnani
Hamza’s candidature can also be impressed by the huge upset attributable to his namesake T.Ok. Hamsa in Manjeri in 2004, the one time the IUML was defeated in Malappuram/Manjeri (The constituency was named Malappuram in 1952 and have become Manjeri until 2004 though it reacquired the identify Malappuram in 2009) since 1952. But Ok.S. Hamza just isn’t tipped to repeat the giant-killing act of his namesake, who was co-opted to the CPI(M) from the Congress after he fell out with former chief minister Ok. Karunakaran within the ‘80s.
“Hamza is a small fish compared to his illustrious namesake. Of course, Hamza is flush with money and he is trying to position himself as the candidate of both the E.K. and A.P. faction of Samastha. He might even get the residual votes of the the Social Democratic Party of India, the political arm of the proscribed Popular Front of India, the PDP and the Jamaat-e-Islami, but that may not be enough against IUML’s Abdussamad Samadani,” said a veteran IUML chief.
The IUML has now switched the seats of its MPs E.T. Mohammed Basheer (Ponnani) and Abdussamad Samadani (Malappuram).
As somebody who used to journey round Malabar to offer spiritual sermons from Samastha platforms within the early ‘90s, Samadani is assumed to be a safer bet in Ponnani, and the IUML reckons that it would be difficult for the Shajra group to canvas a section of the Samastha cadres to vote for Hamza.
For Hamza, being forced to contest on the hammer-and-sickle symbol is regarded as a personal setback. With its national party status at stake, the CPI(M) probably had no alternative but a veteran Chandrika daily journalist opined that it would be emotionally difficult for Samastha cadres — who are essentially IUML voters — to press on its opponents’ image.
“There is a clear division of roles between the IUML and Samastha and that the cadres can delineate it. If Samastha leaders were to say something on religious matters, they would accept it wholeheartedly, but if they were to issue political decrees to vote against the IUML, it simply wouldn’t work,” M.C. Vatakara, writer and biographer of former chief minister C.H. Mohammed Koya, informed ThePrint.
However, a Samastha chief aligned to IUML admitted that it could be simpler for the Shajra leaders to get a bit of cadres to vote towards the Congress in Malabar even when the plan could possibly be foiled in Ponnani. And that’s the place the actual shift is about to occur — in adjoining Kozhikode and the remainder of Malabar.
Also Read: Thrissur twist: How Congress offset desertion by ex-CM’s daughter with a shock candidate
Hamza in Ponnani; Kareem in Kozhikode
Outside the Malabar Palace lodge within the coronary heart of Kozhikode, there’s a big billboard of a smiling Elamaram Kareem, CPI(M) candidate, with the caption: ‘Nammude ponnu Kareemka’ (Our expensive Kareem), a transparent indicator of Kareem’s Muslim id, for he has been Kareem Sakhavu (Comrade Kareem) till now.
Speaking on behalf of the Shajra group, Mustafa Mundupara didn’t rule out a bit of Samastha votes switching to the Left in Malabar and, to some extent, in Thrissur, the place it wields appreciable affect.
But he vehemently denied information of a ‘secret deal’ between the group and the CPI(M).
“The Samastha followers have been hurt. It’s about asserting Samastha’s identity. The wounded Samastha followers could get back at the IUML by voting against it and the Congress, but we would not issue any instruction to that effect.”
On being requested what proportion of the Samastha votes might swap to the Left, Mundupara pegged it at 30 %.
IUML normal secretary P.M.A.Salam rubbished Mundupara’s declare. “They won’t even manage to swing 5 percent votes away from us, and the experiment in Ponnani is doomed to flop miserably,” he mentioned.
However, Congress chief Ok.P. Noushad Ali is alive to the hazards posed by this growth. “We are aware of such unholy deals getting struck in Kozhikode and across Malabar, but we won’t let the CPI(M) prevail. I am myself coordinating the campaign of M.K. Raghavan in Kozhikode,” he said.
Jamaat-e-Islami’s ‘change of heart’
The Jamaat-e-Islami has been supporting the UDF because the 2019 normal election after backing the Left Democratic Front (LDF) till then. In reality, the CPI(M) had been utilizing the Jamaat to vilify the Congress in central Travancore, and this focused marketing campaign labored to the Left’s benefit within the 2021 meeting polls.
And now, the Jamaat-e-Islami appears to be in two minds on supporting the UDF in toto and indications to this impact have been first seen on ‘Out of Focus’, an editorial present on its information channel, MediaOne.
Jamaat chief Samad Kunnakkavu admitted as a lot to ThePrint. “The scenario just isn’t corresponding to 2019. This time, we’re supporting the INDIA bloc and never the Congress alone. So, we’re more likely to help particular candidates from each the UDF and the LDF, pending announcement by Kerala Amir P. Mujeeb Rahman.
On being requested how the Jamaat might help the Left after all of the abuse of the previous 5 years, he mentioned: “Well, if we are to back the LDF, we know how to extract statements from them acknowledging us.”
True to Samad Kunnakkavu’s prediction, the Jamaat’s Iftar social gathering in Kozhikode on 16 March had the highest CPI(M) leaders in attendance, in addition to these from the IUML. Congress’s Noushad Ali, who was additionally current there, exuded confidence that he might “manage the situation with Jamaat” for the UDF.
Although the Jamaat-e-Islami will not be a lot of an element within the vote calculations past pockets in Kozhikode and Vadakara, its nuisance worth is past doubt. The CPI(M) has rapidly latched on to the factors raised by MediaOne for its propaganda.
A roll of the cube
For now, it’s troublesome to foretell whether or not the Shajra group’s plans to swing Samastha votes in Malabar would assist the CPI(M) win seats. However, that is more likely to make the shut contests in Kozhikode, Vadakara, Kannur and Kasaragod tighter than it seems.
In Kasaragod, for example, Congress’s Rajmohan Unnithan may seemingly be on a powerful wicket, however a Left chief identified that Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal is the Qadi of plenty of ‘Mahals’ (mosque) within the district, suggesting that he would swing votes to the Left.
IUML’s Salam dismissed the menace, saying that he didn’t count on Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal to try this. However, many others ThePrint spoke to disagreed. Salam and Thangal return a protracted solution to their pupil days and apparently share a superb private equation between them.
Shafi Parambil’s id
Shafi Parambil, the Congress candidate in Vadakara, has seemingly caught the Jamaat’s ire for not attending its Iftar after MediaOne discounted his Muslim id “for not speaking up on issues concerning the community”.
And neither has Parambil made the necessary go to to Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal at the same time as Ok.Ok. Shailaja of the CPI(M) had already sought an appointment, in line with Mustafa Mundupara.
For the Jamaat-e-Islami and Samastha, the query of id has them labored up. For occasion, Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal is meant to have nominated a Muslim Congress chief as a contestant from Wayanad though Rahul Gandhi’s re-election bid sabotaged it.
And when a Muslim face was chosen for Vadakara, Shafi Parambil was seen as the one winnable chief within the Congress ranks, however the reservations of the Samastha and the Jamaat.
“Shafi seems to be almost apologetic of his identity and is shy of wearing his identity on his sleeve,” a Jamaat chief said.
A.A. Shukoor, a former Congress legislator from Alappuzha, disagreed: “In the Congress, we are trained to be Congressmen first. Identity only comes later. We can’t be seen playing identity politics like IUML or the Kerala Congress factions.”
In the ultimate evaluation, regardless of the final result of the ballot in Malabar, the CPI(M) is more likely to make incremental beneficial properties by means of Hamza’s candidature. The disarray within the Samastha ranks and its tussle with IUML, the realignment of different organisations and associated developments augur properly for the Left’s long-term targets in Kerala.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
Also Read: Hamas is synonymous with Palestine in Kerala. CPI(M), IUML have boxed Congress right into a nook
