“Based on this study, our chief minister and deputy chief minister have pitched 200 seats for the 2026 assembly election, and we are working towards it,” the spokesperson said, asserting that the alliance would remain intact because of the electoral results in the past.
In 2021, the DMK-led alliance won 159 seats, with Chief Minister M.K.Stalin’s party getting about 133 seats. The alliance led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) won about 75 seats of which the AIADMK’s share was 66 and the BJP’s 4.
Irrespective of the outcome of its talks with the Showtime Consulting, the opposition AIADMK has devised its plan to conduct review meetings across the state with the help of the former senior ministers to revive the party.
While there were reports of ruckus and infightings in these meetings, former minister S.P. Velumani told ThePrint that those fights demonstrate how the AIADMK cadres are still enthusiastic when it comes to election unlike how it is being portrayed.
The review meetings, according to AIADMK insiders, were to kickstart the election work before the deal with the consulting firm is finalised.
Showtime Consulting founder Robbin Sharma confirmed that he was in talks with the AIADMK. “However, I am yet to take a final call on it, since we are just off from the Maharashtra elections,” he told ThePrint.
Meanwhile, the Varahe Analytics, which ideated the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Tamil Nadu strategy in the Lok Sabha elections, has prepared a list of constituencies where the party has chances of winning.
“We are just waiting for the return of party state president K. Annamalai, who is in London for a fellowship, to take a final call on the strategy,” a source in the Varahe Analytics told ThePrint.
The firm has deduced that the chances of winning more seats increases only if the party has an alliance with the AIADMK, the source added.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and its were second in 11 constituencies, pushing the AIADMK to the third position. The AIADMK-led alliance came in second position in 27 seats. In the three cornered fight, the BJP secured about 11 percent votes, which was its highest in Tamil Nadu.
The electoral alliances have largely changed in the last three years, with the AIADMK and the BJP severing their ties before the Lok Sabha polls and the DMK allies pressing for greater power share in the government. With Vijay entering the political arena this year, there will be a five-cornered fight featuring the DMK, the AIADMK, the BJP, the TVK, and Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK).
Vijay has also deployed poll strategy consultant Jhon Arokiasamy’s JPAC Persona to handle his election strategy. Apart from setting the narratives, a source working with Arokiasamy said, they have begun the field survey work to identify electorally favourable constituencies for the TVK.
“A professor, who is known for the pre-poll surveys, has been roped in for the process, and work is on. Once the survey report is ready, we will move on to the next process,” the source said.
Political commentator T. Sigamani said that the trend of hiring consultants showed the failure of the political leaders to understand the ground reality through their grassroot level workers.
“Political strategists may give suggestions and substantiate with data analytics. But, at the end of the day, it is the cadres who are supposed to work for the victory of their candidates. It also shows that the parties are drained of ideas and that’s why they reach out to these consultancy firms for their poll strategy,” Sigamani told ThePrint.
A consultant, who worked with Prashant Kishor’s I-PAC for the 2019 general elections, contended that the strategy firms were the scapegoat for the political parties. “If they lose, it is the strategy failure of the consulting firm. If it is a win, then it is because of the efforts of the party. That’s how it is being portrayed,” the consultant said.
However, Sharma said that it all depended on the proven track record and the trust gained from the political party. “Only if they trust the consultant, will they accept the suggestions. So, a consultant can play only a minimal role in devising a strategy, but it is only the cadres who are really executing those strategies on ground,” the Showtime Consulting founder asserted.
Also Read: Vijay positions party against both BJP & DMK. Periyar, Ambedkar & Kamaraj to be its guiding lights
Preparing ground for 2026 polls
Owned by Stalin’s son-in-law V. Sabareesan, the PEN began to introspect its electoral performances soon after the general election results in June. “Once we found the shortcomings in the Lok Sabha polls, we suggested replacing grassroots cadres in those places where our performances were not on par with our expectations. Subsequently, new office bearers were appointed at the booth level,” a PEN insider told ThePrint.
According to another PEN source who was part of survey work, there would be a tough fight between the DMK and the AIADMK in 50 percent of the seats if the opposition party renewed ties with the BJP. “However, by any chance, there is no possibility of losing the majority if our alliance is intact.”
The PEN spokesperson quoted above said that the firm was in the process of analysing the performances and winning probabilities of the MLAs in each assembly constituency.
“After the analysis, the list of constituencies and their performances will be submitted to the party, and a call will be taken. We will not just suggest candidates, but we will also reason why the incumbent candidates will win or lose,” the spokesperson said.
VCK, a DMK ally, is consulting the Voice of Commons, which is owned by its deputy general secretary Aadhav Arjuna who has been devising the party’s strategy for the 2026 polls.
Arjuna told ThePrint that there was a desire among the grassroot workers on the need for share of power in government. “First generation people from the Dalits, minorities and marginalised communities wanted safety for their lives and belongings, but now the fourth and fifth generations are keen on getting a share in power for their political growth.”
His firm, Arjuna said, would work with other like-minded parties.
Nevertheless, the PEN spokesperson told ThePrint that it would not affect the election prospects of both the parties since vote transfer has been mutual. “It is not that only one of them benefited. Vote transfer happens for both the parties, which is evident from the increase in percentage of votes secured by the alliance parties in the Lok Sabha elections,” the spokesperson said.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK secured 26.93 percent of votes and the VCK secured 2.25 percent of votes.
AIADMK, BJP to join hands?
As for the AIADMK, it is actively looking for alliance partners with a former minister from the western region of Tamil Nadu confirming that the party sent invitations to the VCK. “But, they are so reluctant to join the alliance. However, we hope things will change…”
Meanwhile, AIADMK’s IT wing secretary Raj Satyan said that the party has long begun work to attract the youngsters to counter the DMK and the BJP.
“We initially trained our party spokespersons to strongly counter the DMK and the BJP in TV debates…so that those videos can be used in the social media to keep the cadres active. Following the Lok Sabha election results, our general secretary has begun implementing internal changes, which includes the IT wing’s change in approach to attract youths. Currently, we are working on maintaining the enthusiasm of our cadres,” Satyan told ThePrint.
In a meeting held 20 November, party national secretaries Arvind Menon, Sudhakar Reddy and coordination committee head H Raja, party’s seniors had suggested an alliance with the AIADMK for a decent performance in 2026.
“However, supporters of Annamalai objected to it and they wanted to go with the present alliance partners. But, we may not know how many of them in the present alliance would stay for the 2026 election,” a BJP functionary, who was present in the meeting, told ThePrint.
Raja said that the party’s high command would take a call on the alliance.
As for the TVK, Arokiasamy is actively engaging with those senior DMK leaders who had fallen out of Stalin’s favour. “Most of them are staunch followers of late DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi and so they have the inputs on how to counter Stalin and how he is deviating from the Dravidian stance,” a source working with the poll strategy consultant said.
The resolutions, according to the insider, passed in Vijay’s first political conference had the inputs of these out-of-favour DMK veterans.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
Also Read: AIADMK initiates talks with political strategists for an image makeover before 2026 Tamil Nadu polls
