New Delhi: The latest flare-up of tension in Manipur following Monday’s incident where some Kuki-Zo houses were set ablaze in a village in Kangpokpi district, just over a fortnight before President’s Rule is due to end, could jeopardise any plan by the Centre to install a popular government in the state.
Over the past four months, there have been a series of meetings between senior central BJP leaders and MLAs from the party including those from the Kuki-Zo community to explore the possibility of forming a popular government in the state. The Manipur Assembly, where the BJP is in a majority, was placed in suspended animation after President’s Rule was imposed on 13 February 2025.
With a year of President’s Rule expiring on 13 February, there is a renewed push from BJP MLAs, especially from the Meitei community, to install a popular government.
For, in the eventuality of the President’s Rule getting extended, the Manipur assembly could be dissolved and fresh elections called. “It does not make sense to dissolve the assembly as we (BJP) have the numbers and we still have a year before the next assembly elections are due. There are sporadic incidents of violence but by and large the situation is under control,” a BJP Meitei MLA, who did not want to be named, told ThePrint.
The BJP is in a majority in the 60-member Manipur assembly. The assembly currently has 59 MLAs following the death of National People’s Party (NPP) legislator N. Kayisii in January 2025. The BJP MLAs, including seven from the Kuki-Zo community, hold 32 assembly seats. Five Janata Dal (United) MLAs had joined the BJP after the 2022 Manipur assembly elections, taking the party’s effective strength to 37.
It is in such a scenario that the fresh flare-up of tension can put the Centre’s plan to form a government on the backfoot. “As it is, security agencies in the state including the Army, CRPF, Assam Rifles and Intelligence Bureau among others have in their feedback to the Centre batted for continuation of President’s Rule. According to them, the situation in the state is still not conducive for forming the government,” a senior officer from the security establishment told ThePrint.
Kuki-Zo MLAs bargain hard to support govt
What has added to the Centre’s challenge as it considers restoring a popular government is the hard position taken by the BJP Kuki-Zo MLAs.
Of the 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs in Manipur, seven belong to the BJP. Two were BJP allies but withdrew support in the aftermath of the ethnic conflict in May 2023, and one is an independent MLA.
The seven Kuki-Zo BJP MLAs have conveyed to the central leadership that they will participate in government formation only if a written assurance is given to them that their demand for a Union Territory with legislature will be met before the current assembly’s tenure is met.
Paolienlal Haokip, Kuki MLA from Saikot in Churachandpur district told ThePrint, “We will decide to participate in government formation only after a written assurance is given to us by the Centre of a negotiated political settlement to our demands. Without that we will not participate and are ready to face the consequences.”
A second Kuki-Zo MLA, who did not want to be named said, “The central leadership can interpret it as disobedience and can throw us out of the party.”
‘Attempt to sabotage peace’
Security agencies as well as political leaders from the state said Monday’s incident where a group of armed men from a fringe faction of the Naga insurgent group, Zeilangrong United Front (Kamson), reportedly set on fire some houses belonging to the Kuki-Zo community in K. Songlung village in Kangpokpi, a Kuki-Zo dominated district, could be a deliberate attempt to foment trouble between the Kuki-Zo community and the Nagas.
Since May 2023, when ethnic conflict erupted in Manipur between non-tribal Meiteis and the tribal Kuki-Zo communities, the Nagas have not taken sides.
Zeliangrong Nagas are a group of indigenous tribes living in Manipur. Zeliangrong is the composite name given to three tribes—Zeme, Liangmei and Rongmei.
This was the second such incident this month where the fringe Naga insurgent group had attacked Kuki-Zo dominated areas. A senior official from the security establishment told ThePrint that on 8 January, armed men from the ZUF-Kamson group fired three dozen rounds from automatic weapons in Kharam Vaiphei, another Kuki-Zo village in Kangpokpi district.
ZUK-Kamson is a fringe faction of the main ZUF, which is in talks with the Ministry of Home Affairs.
“ZUF-Kamson are trying to profess Naga sub-nationalism through such incidents. Through these incidents, they are attempting to portray themselves as protectors of Naga rights and draw the latter into the conflict. Vested interest could be behind this. Coming before 13 February, such incidents create the impression that the situation is not conducive to forming the government,” a second Meitei BJP MLA said.
Monday’s incident has been denounced by the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland NSCN (IM), the largest of the Naga insurgent group, which has been involved in peace talks with the Government of India for more than two decades now and the United Naga Council, the apex civil society organisation of the Nagas.
In a statement issued on 26 January, NSCN (IM) said, “What is regretted is dragging the name of NSCN in the incident. In no manner whatsoever we are connected with ZUF (Kamson) for this kind of operation against poppy cultivation.”
This also comes close on the heels of suspected Kuki militants killing of a Meitei man, who had gone to meet his Kuki partner, in Churachandpur last week.
However, Manipur-based Lt General Konsam Himalaya Singh (retired) said he does not think the clashes between some Kuki groups and ZUF (Kamson) are a deliberate design to upset plans for a popular government in Manipur. “Tension between a few Kuki groups and Zeliangrong tribes has been brewing for quite some time now over land rights in the area. This incident should be seen in that light,” he told ThePrint.
He added that Naga-Kuki clashes in Manipur during 1992-95 claimed over 1,200 lives and led to the destruction of over 200 villages. “The two have had serious disputes/differences over territory/land in the hills of Manipur since the early 19th century and (there are) allegations of land grabbing by the Naga tribe. It is not a new phenomenon.”
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
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