Political analysts in Tamil Nadu suggest these developments may be part of a larger strategy by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to push the AIADMK toward a renewed alliance under EPS’s leadership ahead of Assembly elections next year.
The AIADMK distanced itself from the BJP following the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with EPS firmly against any revival of ties.
According to political analyst A. Ramasamy, former head and professor at Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, recent statements by OPS and Sengottaiyan are aimed at portraying EPS as the leader who has obstructed AIADMK’s reunification.
“Leaders with EPS are also close to the BJP’s central camp. But for a long time, EPS has been opposing the BJP and has clarified very strongly that they would not join BJP for an alliance,” Ramasamy said to ThePrint. “The recent statements of OPS and Sengottaiyan are to project EPS, a leader who is against the unifying of the AIADMK, and thereby enabling voices for a new leadership, which would accept the alliance with BJP.”
On 10 February, Sengottaiyan met reporters at Erode and said he skipped the event felicitating Palaniswami for the successful implementation of the Avinashi-Athikadavu project as they did not have former Chief Minister M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa’s portrait on the stage.
Adding to the turmoil Wednesday, the Madras High Court lifted the stay on the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) inquiry into petitions seeking to freeze the AIADMK’s two-leaves symbol. Several AIADMK functionaries and former leaders, including Panneerselvam, filed the petitions.
In the middle of the chaos, OPS met reporters at Theni Thursday and expressed his willingness to join the party unconditionally. He also said that expelled AIADMK leaders, V.K. Sasikala and T.T.V. Dhinakaran would also join the party unconditionally.
Political commentators say that all three developments attain significance collectively as EPS has been against the alliance with the BJP, while the BJP has been silent over the alliance after the 2024 Lok Sabha election
However, the AIADMK leadership seems unfazed by the recent developments. The party’s national spokesperson and IT wing president, Kovai Sathyan, said that such “empty noises” would not shake the leadership.
“OPS is a traitor and he has been functioning against the AIADMK party ever since he was expelled. He has no locus standi to seek a re-entry into the party. His bosses are Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. He is singing to their tunes. At least, let him be loyal to them and join the BJP,” Kovai Sathyan told ThePrint.
Speaking to ThePrint, State General Secretary of the BJP Raama Sreenivasan said that the party had no role in the feud between the former and present leaders of AIADMK. “It is unfair to point fingers at the BJP for everything that is happening within AIADMK. As far as an alliance is concerned, it’ll be decided by our national leadership and we have no role in it,” he said.
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First signs of brewing trouble
It all started after AIADMK senior leader Sengottaiyan, who went into political hibernation after the 2021 assembly election, came out in public on 10 February.
Speaking to reporters in Erode on 10 February, he said Jayalalithaa initially allotted Rs 3.72 crore for the Avinashi-Athikadavu project in 2011, and former speaker P. Dhanapal and former minister K.V. Ramalingam had fought for the project.
“But the invitation and the event stage did not have the pictures of these leaders. I would not say I boycotted the ceremony. I would say, I did not participate in the ceremony, that’s all. I had also expressed my displeasure to the committee,” Sengottaiyan said.
Farmers benefiting from the project felicitated Palaniswami at Annur in Coimbatore on 9 February.
Sengottaiyan’s public expression of displeasure stirred turmoil within the party, leading to speculation of discontent within the party against the leadership of EPS.
Former professor A. Ramasamy said Sengottaiyan’s statement assumes significance since he is one of the senior leaders who has been working in the party since former Chief Minister M.G. Ramachandran’s days.
“He was one of the few ministers who was the district secretary since the days of the former CM,” Ramasamy said.
AIADMK functionaries ThePrint spoke to also expressed their displeasure against the current leadership.
“Chances of winning the upcoming assembly election under the leadership of EPS look bleak. However, we do not have any choice for now,” a senior leader in the Western region of Tamil Nadu told ThePrint.
The senior leader also added that a few of the existing MLAs are not even interested in contesting for the next time as they don’t see a chance of winning the election.
The matter was further complicated after the stay on the ECI proceedings to proceed with the inquiry into the petitions over freezing the two-leaves symbol was lifted.
However, the AIADMK legal team was confident that the ECI’s inquiry would not disrupt the party and its leadership. AIADMK former Minister A.C. Shanmugam told ThePrint that the ECI does not have the powers to inquire into the internal conflict when the majority of the people are with EPS.
“We have the majority of the people in our fold and there is no split in our party. Hence, the ECI cannot take the inquiry forward,” he claimed.
According to AIADMK’s legal wing, about 62 MLAs, three Rajya Sabha MPs and about 99 percent of the general committee and executive committee members are with EPS.
“The ECI can interfere only when there is a vertical split in the party. So, looking at the numbers there is no vertical split in the party. Hence, they cannot interfere,” said an advocate working with the party’s legal wing.
However, the events of 2017 during the RK Nagar by-elections highlight potential challenges.
At the time, OPS had rebelled against Sasikala, then general secretary, and EPS, then CM.
Despite Sasikala and EPS’s camp having the support of a majority of MLAs, MPs and committee members, the ECI froze both the AIADMK symbol and name. The symbol and party name were only restored after OPS and EPS reconciled.
OPS and AIADMK
The day after the Madras HC vacated the stay against the ECI proceedings, OPS, who had remained out of the political spotlight after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, came out in public on 13 February in his home town Theni.
However, political commentators raised concerns about his statement, pointing to inconsistencies in his position as he was one of the petitioners with the ECI to freeze the AIADMK symbol.
Political commentator Priyan said OPS’s statements do not hold any value as he was still waging a legal fight against the party.
“His unconditional support should not come just in words but in actions. Soon after the HC vacated a stay, he went to the Supreme Court filing a caveat petition in regard to the same case. If his support is unconditional, he should withdraw his legal fight and openly declare he is open for dialogue and reunion without any condition,” Priyan said.
Nevertheless, Professor A. Ramasamy observed that the sequence of events was putting pressure on the current AIADMK leadership.
“OPS has expressed his unconditional support only to join the AIADMK, but not to join with EPS. The sequence of events would portray that EPS is not in favour of unification. With one year more for election, there may be voices for a new leadership,” Ramasamy said.
These events have collectively opened a Pandora’s box, leaving the AIADMK leadership grappling with tough decisions in the run–up to the 2026 assembly elections.
(Edited by Sugita Katyal)
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