New Delhi: It was none other than Gaurav Gogoi’s rise that led to Himanta Biswa Sarma joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in August, 2015. Much water has flowed down the Bramhaputra since then, as Sarma went on not only to become the Assam chief minister, but also the BJP’s go-to person in the Northeast.
And then came the results in June last year, when Gaurav walloped the BJP’s Jorhat MP by a margin of 1.4 lakh votes, delivering a stinging setback for Sarma who had made the electoral contest a personal battle.
After the Assam chief minister linked Gaurav’s wife Elizabeth Colburn to Pakistani intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the battle lines are clearly drawn for the two sides ahead of the state polls that are due next year.
At stake is the culturally diverse Upper Assam—the heartland of indigenous Assamese groups such as Ahom, Moran, Motok, as well as the tea tribes. The region also often decided the CM face as seen in the 15-year rule of Gaurav’s father and Congress veteran Tarun Gogoi, or the pitchforking of Sarbananda Sonowal in the hot seat in 2016.
The fight has been seemingly personal and dirty, as seen in Sarma dragging Gaurav’s British-born wife, or the Deputy Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha accusing Riniki Bhuyan Sarma of corruption in the past.
In fact, the Congress MP on Wednesday tweeted an old story about the controversial purchase of land in Majuli by the Assam chief minister’s wife.
On Thursday, Gogoi made light of the allegations saying that they fly thick and fast as elections come closer. “If my wife is an ISI agent of Pakistan, then I am a R&AW agent of India. I don’t mind if a family against whom there are various cases and several allegations makes accusations against me,” the Congress MP added.
“Fearing that he might lose his chair, he is trying to divert attention by launching a smear campaign against me and my family… The assembly election is still a year away but it seems that the BJP is on a shaky ground…”
The Northeast state is gearing up for elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC), Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council, Mising Autonomous Council, Sonowal Kachari Council and the panchayat elections scheduled this year.
Later in the evening, Himanta tweeted that the Assam Cabinet will deliberate Sunday whether the recent revelations concerning an MP have any implications for national security. “The discussion will focus on assessing the matter objectively and thoroughly, ensuring that any necessary actions are taken from a completely nonpartisan standpoint,” he posted on ‘X’ without naming Gaurav Gogoi.
Congress’ Assam working president Jakir Hussain Sikdar came out in defence of Gaurav, saying the three-term MP was “as much Hindustani like Sarma”.
“…But he has started his assembly campaign too early to save his chief minister chair by taking up non-issues. It has become a habit of the chief minister to distract people of state from real issues,” he said.
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Hindutva polarisation
Sarma’s bitterness with Gaurav goes back to the years when the former was a trusted lieutenant of Tarun Gogoi, who ruled Assam from 2001 to 2016. The rift in relationship first emerged when Gaurav actively campaigned for the 2011 assembly election and then joined the Congress formally the next year.
The gap widened as Gaurav was projected as inheritor of Tarun Gogoi’s legacy. Gaurav then went on to easily win his first Lok Sabha election in 2014 from Kalibor.
Before he switched over to the BJP in August 2015, Sarma shot off a letter to Sonia Gandhi in which he attacked the senior Gogoi of promoting dynasty politics. ““Our collective dream to make Assam a front-ranking state shattered at the whims and fancies of a single individual. A despotic family-centric politics constantly emboldened by a bunch of sycophants had never allowed a rational and neutral voice to reach to the Congress leadership in the state,” he wrote to the then Congress president.
Himanta went on to become a minister in the Sarbananda Sonowal government and later became the chief minister in 2021.
Ahead of the assembly elections, Himanta’s attack on Gaurav stems from his growing desperation to weaken the Congress MP in his stronghold pockets of Upper Assam.
Although the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 11 seats, the Congress cornered three Lok Sabha seats despite an aggressive, polarising campaign by the BJP. Further, Congress’ vote share of 37.48 percent was a shade better than BJP’s 37.43 percent.
BJP’s Sonowal won from Dibrugarh, but the Union minister saw a drop in his vote share, as newer regional parties like Assam Jatiya Parishad and Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal made their presence felt in Upper Assam.
More importantly, Jorhat, the last capital of the Ahom Kingdom, voted overwhelmingly for Gaurav Gogoi. The Congress won nine out of the ten assembly segments that fall under the parliamentary constituency.
That loss triggered a rare censure for Himanta, as BJP MLA Mrinal Saikia asserted that “money, big publicity and overdose of leaders and arrogant speeches does not always help to win elections”.
Himanta, according to a BJP state leader, had taken the poll results as a “personal setback”. “This shows (that) he is looking to defeat Gogoi.”
The Assam CM’s recent announcement of another capital in Dibrugarh, Upper Assam is a strategy to woo the Ahom and tea industry constituencies to weaken Gogoi, said a Congress leader from the state.
The culturally diverse Upper Assam is identified as the heartland of indigenous Assamese, the Congress leader added.
“Tarun Gogoi, Sonowal belong to this region. Himanta always spoke about Bengali Muslim taking over the Upper Assam region by articulating the strategy of protecting indigenous communities from Bengali Muslims. He wants a greater hold in this region after the concern over decline in popularity,” the Congress functionary asserted.
The growing clout of Gaurav Gogoi can be a challenge for the BJP in the state polls, according to Jayanta Krishna Sarmah, a professor in political science at Gauhati University.
“Despite the entire BJP campaign, he won Lok Sabha polls from Jorhat. The win was taken note across the state and it enhanced his (Gaurav’s) stature. Now that the assembly polls are approaching, the fight has started to protect turf by both sides in their core areas.”
In the previous assembly election, the BJP swept Upper Assam, North Assam, hill districts and constituencies surrounding Guwahati. The Congress-AIUDF alliance performed well in lower Assam (barring Bodo areas) and Barak Valley.
Himanta, a political commentator said, had won the previous election on the Hindutva plank as he branded Badruddin Ajmal-Congress alliance as ‘Muslim League’.
“As per the CSDS poll, 67 percent Hindus rallied behind the BJP cutting across linguistic ethnic differences, 67 percent Assamese Hindus and 74 percent Bengali Hindus voted for the NDA.”
The BJP strongman has established his image akin to Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh to use Hindu polarisation as a major strategy to win election, he added.
“That is why he (Himanta) is linking Gogoi and his wife to Pakistan to mitigate fault-lines in the multi-diverse Hindu society of Assam. Pakistan is the biggest unifier for Hindu consolidation. He wants to use these fault-lines by showing him (Gaurav) a Pakistani or anti-national to start polarisation way ahead of the election,” the political commentator added.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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