New Delhi: At least six exit polls have predicted a majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Delhi Assembly elections, with one other putting its money on a close contest between BJP and the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). If the predictions in its favour hold, the BJP is set to dislodge the AAP and return to power in Delhi after a gap of 27 years.
Delhi recorded a total voter turnout of 57.70 percent till 5 pm Wednesday, but the number could go up since the polls closed at 6 pm.
As for the Congress, exit polls predict that the party which once counted Delhi among its strongholds is unlikely to stage a comeback this time around.
For the AAP, this is an existential battle, not only because corruption cases against its leaders can gain momentum in the event of a loss, but also because, in its 13 years of existence, the party has hardly been out of power. Launched in November 2012, with Arvind Kejriwal riding on his image as an anti-corruption crusader, the AAP found success in its very first election. The party ended Congress’s 15-year rule in Delhi in the 2013 assembly polls, winning 28 seats in the 70-member house, just shy of a majority.
In a surprise move, the AAP formed an alliance with the Congress to create a government that lasted only 49 days, after which President’s Rule was imposed in Delhi.
When polls were held two years later, the AAP stunned everyone, winning 67 seats, and then retained its dominance in the 2020 elections, securing 62 seats.
This time, after a tumultuous five years in office—marked by the arrests of its top leadership, including Kejriwal on corruption charges—the AAP quickly launched its election campaign. It released its candidate list ahead of both the BJP and Congress, giving its MLA hopefuls an early advantage.
In a strategic move, the AAP dropped 20 sitting MLAs, including prominent figures like former Delhi unit convenor Dilip Pandey, and reshuffled several other seats, including that of former deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia. The party emphasised that candidates were picked based purely on the basis of “hard work” and “performance”.
Although Kejriwal stepped aside for Atishi as chief minister after walking out from prison on bail last September, the party campaigned with the promise that he would take up the role again if it returned to power in Delhi.
Also Read: Gloves off ahead of Delhi elections, why AAP is on the warpath against Congress
A look at three poll campaigns in Delhi
In the weeks leading up to the Delhi assembly polls, the AAP launched an aggressive publicity campaign centred around its set of “guarantees”.
The guarantees—poll promises—reflected AAP’s core politics, grounded in a mix of populism and welfare. It sought to cement its popularity among the city’s working-class women by promising them a monthly cash handout of Rs 2,100. Also, the promise to pay pujaris and granthis Rs 18,000 per month if the party returns to power was an extension of its ongoing efforts to woo Hindu voters and undercut the BJP’s Hindutva narrative.
Kejriwal also made a rare outreach to the middle-class, sensing growing antagonism among the relatively affluent, by demanding income tax cuts from the Centre.
On its part, the BJP, which has remained out of power in Delhi since 1998, ran a less polarising campaign this time compared to 2020, when it had pulled out all the stops to leverage the raging protests in the city against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act to consolidate Hindu votes.
In campaign speeches, BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, took care to assure people that the party, in the event of its victory, would not scrap the AAP government’s popular schemes, such as free power, water and bus rides for women.
The party also sought to double up on the AAP’s populist promises by announcing its own basket of freebies—including a monthly handout of Rs 2,500 to women and Rs 21,000 to pregnant women.
The BJP went to the polls without projecting any chief ministerial face, yet again banking on the appeal of Modi, who set the party’s campaign tone in his speeches where he called the AAP an “aapda (disaster)” for Delhi due to its “lack of vision” and “corruption”.
Making its intent clear to leave no stone unturned to defeat the AAP, the BJP fielded former West Delhi MP Parvesh Verma, son of former Delhi CM Sahib Singh Verma, against Kejriwal in the high-stakes New Delhi constituency. It also chose Ramesh Bidhuri, the party’s firebrand and controversial former South Delhi MP, to take on CM Atishi in Kalkaji.
Verma, running a high-decibel campaign that also drew allegations of bribery from the AAP, sought to tie down Kejriwal—the party’s most popular face—in his own constituency. In retaliation, Kejriwal held daily press conferences and filed petitions with the Election Commission, accusing Verma of brazenly using money and muscle power to rig the results.
The BJP also sought to capitalise on the anti-incumbency sentiment against the AAP by highlighting its failure to clean the Yamuna, improve the city’s poor road infrastructure, and address an inefficient garbage collection system—issues that resonated with the middle and upper-middle classes, demographic groups not swayed by the AAP’s populist schemes.
The Congress, eager to claw back in what used to be its bastion, also went all out against the AAP, with the party’s high command finally appearing to be on the same page as its Delhi unit on the issue.
The Congress high command did initially intervene to get its Delhi unit leaders to tone down their offensive against the AAP, however, towards the end, senior leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra unleashed an aggressive campaign against Kejriwal, equating him with Modi.
Aware of its limitations and diminished organisational presence on the ground, the Congress ran a focused campaign, targeting a strong showing in seats dominated by Muslims and Scheduled Castes.
Rahul even referred to the corruption cases against Kejriwal in his speeches, calling him and Sisodia the “architects” of the “liquor scam”, and also accused the AAP supremo of “building a sheesh mahal for himself”.
The sheesh mahal reference was to the alleged use of “extravagant luxurious items” to renovate the official bungalow that Kejriwal occupied in his capacity as Delhi CM.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
Also Read: Delhi L-G approves prosecution of Arvind Kejriwal in excise policy case ahead of 2025 assembly polls
